The carbon isotope compositions (δ13C) of atmospheric CO2, C3-origin organic carbon, and limestone epikarst differ substantially, resulting in variable δ13C signatures recorded in secondary soil carbonates and speleothems which represent a mixture of these sources. Even though this signal has been widely used in paleoclimate studies, the extent to which carbonate δ13C is influenced by the dynamic response of organic carbon respiration rates to soil moisture variations has yet to be fully evaluated. Soils that are rewetted after a prolonged drought commonly display a peak in respiration rate followed by relaxation to a lower steady state in both lab incubation experiments and field observations. This transient behavior, known as the Birch effect, has been extensively observed across a broad range of locations and soil types, and may generate more than 50% of the total respired CO2 in some ecosystems. Here, we seek to identify the influence of the Birch effect on carbonate δ13C records based on a moisture-dependent modeling approach. We report compiled respiration rates of soils from the literature and fit these data as a function of soil moisture, before imposing exponential dampening with depth and applying the resulting function in a production-diffusion equation. We then implement a mass balance calculation for the δ13C value of carbonate precipitated from a mixture of atmospheric and respired CO2, including mass-dependent fractionation associated with diffusive transport. Our results offer a novel prediction for depth-resolved carbonate δ13C as a function of soil moisture, and suggest that Birch effect signals may be recorded in soil carbonates and influence the magnitude of carbonate δ13C variations in speleothems. Thus, we illustrate a prediction for the range of carbonate δ13C recorded in terrestrial carbonates and suggest that differences in the range of carbonate δ13C may indicate changes in soil moisture variability, providing a new framework for quantifying past hydrologic conditions.